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The "big snow" isn't expected to hit until Tuesday night into Wednesday. Still seems to be a lot of uncertainty though. Look around at weather.com, accuweather, wcyb, etc and they all say different things. Kentucky weather center is still saying potential for 12"+, but everyone else seems to think it won't do much. I'd say it will be sometime tomorrow before they can give a real good estimate.
Still awaiting to how things trend through tomorrow, especially once it gets in the 48 hr window, due to differences in track still yet. Its like Chris says in his blog, its the American models (which are the farthest east) vs. the non-American (which are over farther west). The American ones (GFS and NAM) may trend back west though, the GFS is very well known for that.
By the way, still a little light snow/flurries expected to move through early tomorrow also.
*00z GFS run for tonight continues the westward trend, also places the western precip shield right over us with a good deal of moisture associated.
Unfortunately, regarding this storm, IF there is some significant accumulations, it appears its going to be another heavy wet snow. Keep that in mind also.
The GFS is starting to come around to a more western track than in previous runs. I would just like to see what the Mets are going to call for the accumulations 24hrs. out from the start. The low is starting to form in the NGOM and you can starting tracking it for its intesity and track. This is going to get intersting!
Also look for Winter Storm Watches to go up later this evening.
I suppose the beautiful weather and sun today is what they call the calm before the storm?
I remember the blizzard of 93 starting almost exactly the same way. It was like 60 degrees the day before and pouring rain. Then, later that night, it turned to one hell of a snowstorm. If memory serves me correctly, we had like 27 inches at the house. Then came the bitter cold.
yeah, I planted trees the day before the storm. 2 day later I couldn't see them. They had already missed on a couple big snows and I figured they'd miss on another one.Quote:
Originally Posted by centennialdawg
I have been following some weather blogs and mot Mets. are saying it is going to go more westward with a lot of moisture. A big wet snow bring heavy weight for power lines and trees. I am afraid we are in the preliminary stages of the snowstorm that hit last year in December.
This is one complicated and interesting storm with a decent mix of differing forecasts. NWS in Morristown saying they're not confident enough to put up watches yet and only believe the highest elevations may reach warning criteria...in the statement they give totals from a general 2-5 with up to 6 possible in the higher elevations. Now just go to our west just a little to the Jackson NWS and they are going with a general 4-10 inch range and have posted Winter Storm Watches out for all of eastern KY. The Weather Channel keeps trying to pain the heaviest axis over this area too. And Chris' thinking is the areas in the highest risk category he has (which includes this area) are likely to see over 6 inches. Not sure what WJHL is going with but WCYB says 1/2 inch to 3 possible in the lower elevations and 2-6 in the higher with some locally heavier amounts mainly across the highest terrain. So, still some uncertainty. And this is all the current thinking, most likely to change, and wouldn't be surprised to see some of these expected totals to go up. It looks like though that rain could cut into the totals overall. If this storm does nudge west and strengthens more when it turns up, heavier rain and the intensifying low could help with dynamic cooling and a rapid changeover to the heavy wet snow. NWS and others right now thinking rain begins to mix with and change to snow at the higher elevations Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and then late Wednesday morning in the lower elevations as the storm begins to intensify on Wednesday.
Most sticking with lower end amounts. Morristown now has a winter storm watch posted for the area. They say a general 2-5, with over 6 possible in highest elevations. Not really anything much more than what we can typically see if theirs holds true.
Watch info:
National Weather Service Watch Warning Advisory Summary